I’m back, and in this brief blog, I want to discuss a phrase you will probably have heard at some point in some form before. “Wars of the future will be fought over water not oil”. This proclamation flooded the media a few years ago and gained international awareness. Figure one displays one such example of images accompanying articles discussing the post-apocalyptic water wars. I find this statement damaging as it disregards the ability for collaboration and conflict to coexist. Additionally, the scale of attention it received only serves to further incite frenzy and possibly violence itself.
Figure one: Stereotypical image emerged from searching the statement above.
Both violent and non-violent social conflicts can limit effective and successful collaborations between countries that share water resources. In the instance of violent conflicts in Tigray, the tensions between the Ethiopian government and Tigray People Liberation Front stalled operations and riparian discussions of the GERD. Moreover, in 2021 Sudan still hosting 55,000 Ethiopian refugees and asylum seekers from this conflict. Conflict evidently, influences how effective negotiations between riparian states are. Already perpetuated by previously discussed tensions between Eastern Nile riparian states due to post-colonial legacies, conflict is undoubtedly a barrier to cooperation.
However, the notion that pressures of water security will surely result in extreme, violent conflict is misguided and damaging. Wars that have been fought over water involve a complexity of other factors and research presents that international water provides an opportunity for national partnership. To escape this narrative, one must accept that conflict and cooperation can coexist, or in fact, acknowledge not all conflict is negative and not all cooperation is positive.
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